Monthly Accounting Estimates
15. February 2010 by Bob Jarmak.
The following are recommended for accounting estimates for Current Coupon loans, by CMB Clients:
| Date |
30 Yr. (%) |
15 Yr. (%) |
Current 30 Y Loan Rate |
| 02/15/2010 |
1.00 |
.90 |
4.95% |
| 01/15/2010 |
.95 |
.90 |
4.75% |
| 12/15/2009 |
1.00 |
.90 |
4.95% |
These do not represent fair market values and are only for use by CMB Clients for estimation purposes, as described in CMB Client Documentation. These do not represent an offer by CMB to purchase or sell at these levels. As loan rates rise above the 30Y Current rate, values decline.
Current Economic Outlook
10. June 2009 by Bob Jarmak.
06/10/2009 - More of the Same — Looking back over the past 3 months, not much has changed. We continue to receive mixed economic results with generally poor employment news. There are signs the recession is decreasing in severity, but these are ambiguous. It seems clear we need to take a longer view of the political situation to see the likely result of the numerous governmental actions that have been taken over the past year.
First, our enormous budget deficits will clearly have a negative impact on all future economic performance. From crowding out to dollar weakness, there will be a price to be paid. And the continuing unwillingness to face the looming demographic catastrophe will exacerbate everything. We cannot ignore the built in future deficits resulting from increased social security and medicare for much longer. Plus, these are inflation linked, which will make things much worse. It all adds up to the same thing: low growth, higher inflation, higher rates, lower financial asset prices and reduced standards of living.
While it is difficult to be optimistic in the face of all this, we need to remember the positive impact of technology on our society and the economy. We continue to progress, at an exponential pace, towards massive change in this area, as our computing power and our understanding of various physical and biological processes continues to dramatically improve. Will this be enough to offset all the negatives? Only time will tell.
03/07/2009 - Crisis in Confidence Continues and the Law of Unintended Consequences – The markets continue to be buffeted by an unending barrage of bad news. Only recently has our new President begun to put a more optimistic tone on things. But, as the saying goes, too little … too late. Just compare the market reactions to the current crisis with the past few. In 1987 we had a massive breakdown, similar to the current situation in many ways. But then, Chairman Greenspan made many comments about protecting the market stability and stand behind institutions. Because the markets had confidence in his ability the Fed and the Treasury had to actually do very little. The same was true during the LTCM blowup. Compare that with the situation last year as the crisis developed. The Fed and the Treasury were forced to back up their promises because the markets had little confidence in the Fed or the Treasury. Viewers of the news are subjected to a constant barrage of “crisis” stories. One of the main reasons why the markets have no confidence is the inconsistent actions of the government by rescuing Bear Stearns while letting Lehman fail. Markets hate uncertainty and if they don’t know who will be saved, they will pull back from all transactions.
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Current Economic Outlook
14. January 2009 by Bob Jarmak.
01/15/2009 - The Incredibly Difficult Environment Ahead
In order to capture the challenge of looking ahead, it is valuable to review the past. A year ago we knew about the problem of sub-prime loans and the large losses in portfolios. We obviously had no concept of the magnitude of the problems in the system. Virtually no one foresaw the carnage we would see in 2008.
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Current Economic Outlook
14. November 2008 by Bob Jarmak.
I’ll use this space to post comments on the current economic environment and outlook. It will be updated as needed based on changes in the environment. If I haven’t added updated comments, there’s been no change.
11/15/2008 - Near Term Outlook is Bleak
There is little positive news in the capital markets. Economic reports are uniformly poor. Government officials scurry around; lots of activity — few tangible results to this point. Certainly liquidity is improving in some markets and the actions taken to date are positive.
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Dawn of a New Era for Community Institutions?
7. October 2008 by Bob Jarmak.
10/07/2008 - Dawn of a New Era for Community Banks?
It is extremely difficult to remain focused during difficult times.With the constant media barrage of bad news and doom and gloom, one would think this is the first time we’ve faced a financial crisis. It’s made more difficult with the large amount of misinformation and misinformed commentary.
However when we step back and try to think about the ramifications of this particular financial crisis, it appears pretty clear there will be winners and losers — as always.
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