14. August 2010 by Bob Jarmak.

The following are recommended for accounting estimates for Current Coupon loans, by CMB Clients:

These do not represent fair market values and are only for use by CMB Clients for estimation purposes, as described in CMB Client Documentation.  These do not represent an offer by CMB to purchase or sell at these levels.

 As loan rates rise above the 30Y Current rate, values decline, substantially in cases of a large drop in rates.

As rates reach new lows, clients should plan for significant declines in servicing values, and increases in impairment.

Posted in Monthly Estimates, Servicing Valuation | Print | No Comments »

15. March 2010 by Bob Jarmak.

03/31/2010 - More of the Same – We have reviewed our  previous post of 06/30/2009 and found again, not much has changed.  We are in a long term corrective process.  The economic indicators clearly show minor improvement in all areas, but until employment begins to increase, we will continue to see mixed results.  Rates remain range bound and credit spreads are now at pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels in most cases.  Some banks are repeating the errors of the 1980’s and 1990’s by investing long and funding short.  In time, this will prove as damaging as it was previously.  Similarly, credit spreads are narrow enough that there is insufficient reward for the increased risk.

Posted in Capital Markets | Print | No Comments »

10. June 2009 by Bob Jarmak.

06/10/2009 - More of the Same — Looking back over the past 3 months, not much has changed.  We continue to receive mixed economic results with generally poor employment news.  There are signs the recession is decreasing in severity, but these are ambiguous.  It seems clear we need to take a longer view of the political situation to see the likely result of the numerous governmental actions that have been taken over the past year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Capital Markets | Print | No Comments »

14. January 2009 by Bob Jarmak.

01/15/2009 - The Incredibly Difficult Environment Ahead

 In order to capture the challenge of looking ahead, it is valuable to review the past.  A year ago we knew about the problem of sub-prime loans and the large losses in portfolios.  We obviously had no concept of the magnitude of the problems in the system.  Virtually no one foresaw the carnage we would see in 2008. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Capital Markets | Print | No Comments »

14. November 2008 by Bob Jarmak.

I’ll use this space to post comments on the current economic environment and outlook. It will be updated as needed based on changes in the environment. If I haven’t added updated comments, there’s been no change.

11/15/2008 - Near Term Outlook is Bleak               

There is little positive news in the capital markets.  Economic reports are uniformly poor.  Government officials scurry around; lots of activity — few tangible results to this point.  Certainly liquidity is improving in some markets and the actions taken to date are positive.  

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Capital Markets | Print | No Comments »